Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is building momentum as we move through the early part of 2026, but this cycle looks very different from the last one. Volumes are recovering unevenly, AI is a major driver (and in some cases, distraction), and deals are fewer, but larger.
According to PwC’s latest Global M&A industry trends outlook, 2025 saw deal values rise sharply (up about 36% year-over-year) even as transaction volumes barely moved. That’s clearly a market powered by a few very large deals, rather than broad-based dealmaking momentum.
That pattern is central to how this cycle will evolve in 2026. Headline deal values are likely to be supported by megadeals and strategic capital, tempered by selective mid-market activity and persistent macro uncertainty. And while deal volumes have stayed relatively stable, they are far from a fringe activity, with 41% of surveyed CEOs expecting to undertake a major acquisition in the next 3 years.
Treasury teams are not passive observers in this environment; they are key to execution, risk control, and the early capture of deal value. That’s because, for finance and treasury leaders, M&A is at once becoming more important, and more complex. The question then becomes whether internal operating models are ready for what this wave demands.
“Looking ahead, provided inflation and interest rates continue to fall back across major financial markets, confidence is expected to pick up even more. This should boost acquisition appetite further, as firms use M&A activity to support revenue growth and cost optimisation.” – Andre Veissid, EY-Parthenon Global Financial Services Industry Leader
The Structure of the 2026 M&A Market
While M&A and the broader business environment always works in cycles, it’s worth remembering the old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.” Because while the cycles of growth and contraction are well trodden, the specifics are always different. The outlook for 2026 is no exception, with some key trends emerging.
1. The K-Shaped M&A Landscape
PwC highlights a K-shaped deal environment where confidence and activity are concentrated at the top end of the market. This is being driven by well-capitalised buyers, strategic tech plays, and transformational transactions, while broader mid-market and smaller deals remain constrained by valuation gaps, financing conditions, and persistent macro volatility.
This ‘K-curve’ isn’t generally considered to be a temporary blip, but is instead reflective of structural change in capital allocation decisions. Organisations are looking to balance investment in technology, infrastructure, and capability-enhancing assets, while remaining cautious elsewhere.
This position is echoed in Goldman Sachs 2026 M&A Outlook, “The size and structural complexity of transactions are growing alongside rapidly changing market structures and shifting financial conditions, regulatory constraints, and business priorities.”
A focus on bigger deals means greater complexity, something which finance and treasury teams need to ready for.
2. AI Is Redrawing Strategic Priorities
Any talk of trends in 2026 can’t exclude AI. The technology was a defining theme of 2025, and one PwC expects to carry strongly into 2026. Investment in AI and related infrastructure has spurred capital spending, and has also reshaped strategic priorities and acquisition rationales.
AI is increasingly part of their strategic logic, pulling forward transactions aimed at building capabilities in data, analytics, cybersecurity, automation, and scalable platforms. There’s also the promise of greater efficiency gains post-deal, allowing deal makers greater flexibility in making the numbers work to get deals done.
3. Capital Is Acting Discriminately
High deal values in 2025 were driven principally by a spike in megadeals (111 transactions above $5 billion, up from 63) rather than broader volume growth. At the same time, PwC’s Global CEO Survey, as mentioned earlier, shows that about four in ten CEOs are planning a major acquisition within the next three years. This indicates sustained M&A intent at the strategic level, even as broader execution confidence remains uneven.
It’s clear that while capital is available, allocation decisions are becoming more selective, disciplined, and capability-oriented.
4. Geographic and Sector Patterns
Dealmaking strength is not evenly distributed. The US accounted for a large share of 2025’s aggregate deal value, benefitting from deeper capital markets and bigger strategic transactions. Other regions, including parts of Asia and EMEA, show pockets of activity and selective growth, especially where regulatory clarity and sector momentum provide a visible path to returns.
Sector dynamics align with broader economic trends, with a renewed emphasis on technology, cybersecurity, data infrastructure, clean energy, industrial automation, and regulated services. These sectors are underpinned by structural investment themes that extend beyond typical cyclical rebounds. In short and to no surprise, hot industries are hot.
What This Means for Treasury and Finance Leaders
In a market where value is concentrated and expectations are high, treasury functions are central to whether value is preserved, risk is controlled, and strategic targets are realised.
Some of the core dynamics that treasury leaders must contend with include:
Liquidity and Capital Certainty Early in the Deal
When megadeals dominate deal value, funding certainty is table stakes for buyers and sellers alike. Treasury teams are being asked to provide real-time visibility into consolidated liquidity, rapidly harmonise cash positions, and support financing structures that underpin larger, more complex transactions.
Risk Assessment Under Macro Uncertainty
A K-shaped market brings uneven exposure to risk. Hard macro data such as FX volatility, sector-specific headwinds, and financing cost shifts, require treasury to provide forward-looking analytics that feed directly into valuation models, hedging strategies, and post-deal capital planning.
Speed and Control in Integration
Mid-market deals are likely to remain selective, but large strategic transactions often take many months to build up steam, but then move fast and with little patience for operational friction post-close. This is particularly true for listed companies with reporting obligations at the forefront of any deal.
Treasury and finance functions are expected to lead integration of banking structures, cash reporting, working capital tools, and payment controls quickly and systematically.
How the Right Treasury Software Enables Positive M&A Outcomes
In this modern, fluid M&A environment, treasury technology serves as operational infrastructure that makes disciplined execution possible and efficient.
When markets are uneven and outcomes are narrowly defined by execution quality, treasury platforms help:
- Aggregate cash and liquidity across legal entities and data sources quickly
- Standardise reporting and controls across newly acquired entities and legacy structures
- Model cash flow and funding scenarios dynamically in the face of changing macro inputs
- Automate risk reporting and compliance across multiple jurisdictions
This level of capability helps provide the trusted data and controls finance leaders need to make decisions under uncertainty.
Whether treasury software accelerates cash consolidation by days instead of weeks, or enables scenario analysis that informs capital allocation decisions, the value lies in reducing ambiguity and enabling execution discipline.
M&A in 2026 Is About Strategic Depth, Not Broad Expansion
The 2026 deal environment signals a shift from rebound to reshaping. M&A is concentrated and capability driven, while capital is (relatively) abundant but cautious. Technology and structural change are central themes, but macro uncertainty still tempers confidence outside a narrow set of well-capitalised buyers.
In that context, treasury is not the flashiest part of the deal team, but it is one of the most consequential. The ability to deliver real-time insight, disciplined risk control, and seamless integration is a practical differentiator between deals that create measurable value and those that erode it.
Successful treasury teams in 2026 will treat their role as a strategic fulcrum for capital certainty, risk oversight, and accelerated integration. Doing this necessitates access to the right tools.
Trovata has been built to help modern treasury and finance teams gain real-time visibility into cash and liquidity, standardise data across banks and entities, and move faster during periods of structural change, including M&A. By automating bank connectivity and simplifying forecasting, reporting, and controls, Trovata helps teams stay focused on execution and decision-making when the stakes are highest.
If M&A activity is rising on your agenda for 2026, now is the right time to assess whether your treasury infrastructure is ready to support it. Learn how Trovata helps finance leaders operate with clarity and confidence before, during, and after transactions. Book a demo today.
